2025年1発目の論文受理通知がきました。ISEM2023のFull paperとして「Pipe Failure prediction model based on periodic pipe wall thickness measurement using electromagnetic acoustic resonance (電磁超音波共鳴による配管肉厚検査履歴に基づく配管破損確率モデル)」としてInternational Journal of Applied Electromagnetics and Mechanics誌に投稿していた論文が採択決定です。
こちらは以前Nondestructive Testing and Evaluation誌で発表した電磁超音波共鳴法による配管減肉信号の確率論的評価手法のアップデート的な位置付けのもので、単に配管肉厚がある厚みを下回るか否かではなく、内部流体による圧力や材料強度のばらつきも考慮して、配管破損確率を定量的に評価1したという内容です。配管破損確率評価においてもかなりいい結果が得られる、ということを示しています。
研究自体は確かコロナが始まったあたりのものでした。時間はかかりましたが、論文発表までこぎつけることができ、これで一段落といった感じです。ただ、受理通知メール本文には9月8日に受理されたとあり、ではこの半年弱は一体何だったんだろうか、とも。
何はともあれ、概要は以下。
Title: Pipe Failure prediction model based on periodic pipe wall thickness measurement using electromagnetic acoustic resonance (電磁超音波共鳴による配管肉厚検査履歴に基づく配管破損確率モデル)
Abstract: This study proposes a numerical model to predict pipe failure based on periodic non-destructive inspections using electromagnetic acoustic resonance (EMAR). A total of 149 artificially corroded samples that simulated flow-assisted corrosion were prepared; 27 of them were plates, and others were from pipes of various dimensions. The samples were measured using EMAR, and the thicknesses of the samples were evaluated based on the fundamental resonance frequency. The results of the evaluations were compared with the actual thicknesses measured by a caliper gauge to quantify the uncertainty in pipe wall thickness evaluation. Numerical evaluations were performed to predict pipe failure probability in the future based on the results of periodic EMAR measurements. Three scenarios of pipe thickness reduction were considered, and each scenario assumed that pipe thickness measurements by EMAR were performed every five years. The actual pipe wall thickness, which is not necessarily the same as the EMAR evaluations, is estimated as a probability density function using the Bayesian approach proposed in an earlier study by the authors. Whereas this study considers only pipe rupture, the results of numerical simulations support the validity of the model especially when the corrosion rate is not constant.